The Impact of Domestic Passenger Transport on International Tourism Development

Abstract

The overall objective of this paper is to study the prospects for the development of domestic transport of passengers in selected countries for the next five years and to establish the correlation between domestic transport of passengers and travel and tourism (T&T) industry’s contribution to GDP in these countries, as well as the suburbanisation of Ukraine, Poland, the USA, China and India. The analysis of the forecast of the dynamics of domestic transport of passengers in comparison with the dynamics of GDP per capita and the CPI allows us to state that in the next 5 years the economies Poland, China and India will expand (i.e. there will be GDP per capita growth) for each of the projected scenarios (realistic, optimistic and pessimistic). The only exception is Ukraine, where this figure will be 95-96% depending on the selected scenario. The conducted research shows that from 2021 to 2025, the projected GDP per capita growth in Poland will amount to 12.03%. According to the realistic forecast, this will affect the increase in domestic transport of passengers, which will amount to 120.8%, with a decrease in the CPI to the level of 32.8%. The United States and India will demonstrate similar patterns. Particularly, the projected GDP per capita growth in the US will amount to 106.1%, while domestic transport of passengers will be equal to 108.9% and the CPI will fall to 86.8%. At the same time, in India the GDP per capita is expected to reach 118.7%, with domestic transport of passengers amounting to 169.4% and the CPI amounting to 57.6%. Hence, the analysed indicators suggest that the economic situation in Poland, USA and India will facilitate the transport industry’s development in the subsequent 5 years.